[1]H.G.S. Noble, The New York Stock Exchange in the Crisis of 1914 (Garden City, NY: Country Life, 1915), 12.諾布爾寫的是“鑼”聲,不過在1903年,鑼被換成了銅鍾。William L. Silber, When Washington Shut Down Wall Street (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007).
[2]Mira Wilkins, The History of Foreign Investment in the United States, 1914–1945 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004), 9, 22–37. 威爾金斯估計,1914年美國經濟中的外國投資總額(包括債務)為71億美元。當時美國經濟的總產出約為345億美元。
[3]J. A. Salter, Allied Shipping Control: An Experiment in International Administration (Oxford: Clarendon, 1921), 1.
[4]Wilkins, History of Foreign Investment, 15–16. 德國貿易數據取自Giovanni Federico and Antonio Tena Junguito,“Federico-Tena World Trade Historical Database: Europe,”e-cienciaDatos, V1, 2018, doi:10.21950/XBOWYN。關於禁運影響的官方估計,參見“Memorandum in Regard to the Present Position of the Blockade, January 1st, 1917,”War Cabinet, Miscellaneous Records, UK National Archives CAB1/22。
[5]半島東方航運公司在1914年共有110萬噸商船,僅次於皇家郵船公司(Royal Mail Steamship Company),參見Gordon Boyce, Information, Mediation, and Institutional Development: The Rise of Large-Scale British Shipping, 1870–1919 (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1995), 128。中國航運公司的情況,參見Miller, Maritime World, 88–93. Salter, Allied Shipping Control, 24–29, 352–353。
[6]Salter, Allied Shipping Control, 80–81, 123, 355–359.根據索爾特的估計,在戰爭期間,協約國及中立國的商船損失約為1250萬噸;在戰爭開始時,這些國家擁有約3100萬噸的商船,其中約40%在戰爭中被摧毀。中國和伊朗貿易量的估算,參見Giovanni Federico and Antonio Tena Junguito,“Federico-Tena World Trade Historical Database: Asia,”e-cienciaDatos, V2, 2018, doi:10.21950/05CZKM。
[7]Miller, Maritime World, 243–244.
[8]Margaret Macmillan, Versailles 1919 (New York: Random House, 2001), 13.
[9]Giovanni Federico and Antonio Tena Junguito,“Federico-Tena World Trade Historical Database: World Trade,”e-cienciaDatos, V2, 2018, doi:10.21950/JKZFDP; Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor,“Globalization in Capital Markets,”in Bordo, Taylor, and Williamson, Globalization in Historical Perspective, 141.
[10]1921年《工業保護法》被編入11 & 12 Geo. 5, c. 47. US Depart-ment of Commerce and Labor, Foreign Tariff Notes 42 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1921), 188; Douglas A. Irwin, Peddling Protectionism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011), 17; Edward S. Kaplan,“The Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922,”EH.Net Encyclopedia, ed. Robert Whaples, March 16, 2008, https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-fordney-mccumber-tari?-of-1922/. 在這一時期,許多商品的關稅是按件或磅,而不是按進口價值的百分比征收的,所以如果商品的價格下降,關稅占比就會自動上升,參見Michael Clemens and Jeffrey G. Williamson,“A Tariff-Growth Paradox: Protectionism’s Impact the World Around, 1875–1997,”NBER working paper 8459 (2001)。
[11]Saif I. Shah Mohammed and Jeffrey G. Williamson,“Freight Rates and Productivity Gains in British Tramp Shipping 1869–1950,”Explorations in Economic History 41 (2004): 172–203; Fiona Scot Morton,“Entry and Predation: British Shipping Cartels, 1879–1929,”Journal of Economics and Management Strategy 6 (1997): 679–724; Estevadeordal, Frantz, and Taylor,“Rise and Fall.”
[12]Mira Wilkins and Frank Ernest Hill, American Business Abroad: Ford on Six Continents (Detroit: Wayne State University Press, 1964);“Ford in Europe: A Historical Timeline,”Automotive News, June 2, 2003; Petri Paju and Tomas Haigh,“IBM Rebuilds Europe: The Curious Case of the Transnational Typewriter,”Enterprise and Society 17 (2016): 281; Wilkins and Hill, American Business Abroad, 132, 145; Don Nerbas, Dominion of Capital: The Politics of Big Business and the Crisis of the Canadian Bourgeoisie, 1914–1947 (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2013), 170; Geo?rey Jones, Multinationals and Global Capitalism (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), 81.
[13]McKeown,“Global Migration, 1846–1940.”
[14]òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor,“Microfnancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts,”in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, ed. Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017), 213–263; Harold James, The End of Globalization: Lessons from the Great Depression (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2001).
[15]1948年,美國勞工部估算,1930年失業者共434萬人,勞工總人數為4982萬人。根據該數據,當時美國的失業率約為8.7%。這項估算及其他估算,參見Stanley Lebergot,“Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment, 1929–1939: Estimating Methods,”Monthly Labor Review, July 1948, 50–53。農場工人的工資,參見US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Bicentennial Ed. (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1976), 468。按購買力平價估算的經濟增長值,參見J. P. Smits, P. J. Woltjer, and D. Ma,“A Dataset on Comparative Historical National Accounts, ca. 1870–1950: A Time-Series Perspective,”Groningen Growth and Development Centre researchmemorandum GD-107 (2009)。
[16]有多種方式計算實際關稅稅率,參見Irwin, Peddling Protection-ism, 103–106。
[17]引自Irwin, 170–174。1930年,世界範圍內製成品的出口量下跌了15%,參見Statistical Office of the United Nations,“International Trade Statistics, 1900–1960,”draft paper (1962), UN Trade Statistics, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/data/tables.asp#historical. 《斯穆特–霍利關稅法案》在當年年中施行。
[18]Peter S. Jacks,“From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run,”NBER working paper 18874 (2016); Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson,“Does Globalization Make the World More Unequal?”in Bordo, Taylor, and Williamson, Globalization in Historical Perspective, 264.